On 15 September 2020, the UAE, Bahrain and Israel signed the Abraham Accords which “recognize[d] the importance of maintaining and strengthening peace in the Middle East and around the world based on mutual understanding and coexistence, as well as respect for human dignity and freedom, including religious freedom”.¹ The Abraham Accords offer opportunities for direct flights, people-to-people exchanges, business partnerships and government agreements that have all led to greater security ties between the signatories and increased investment and economic growth in the area. This led, in December 2020, to Israel and Morocco agreeing to re-establish diplomatic ties; the following month, Sudan signed the Abraham Accords declaration, agreeing to normalise ties with Israel.²

The Abraham Accords is a product of the US seeking to withdraw its assets from the region, while anchoring its strategic interests in a new regional security and economic framework. In turn, this offers a context for the UK to advance its own economic and security interests in the region.

However, in the wake of the 7 October terrorist attack against Israel, further progress on the Accords has been frozen. At the same time, China’s increasing influence in the region presents an alternative source of security and economic engagement. Meanwhile, the proxies of Iran (Hamas, the Houthis and Hezbollah) seek to stop the establishment of a new security architecture built around the Abraham Accords that would constrain Iran’s ability to threaten its neighbours.

To revive the Accords, and keep the region Westwards facing, the UK needs to work alongside the US to develop a renewed transatlantic strategy for the Gulf, one that integrates both trade and security issues.

However, the UK has failed to outline a clear military strategy towards the Arabian Gulf. This lack of clarity coincides with the UK decommissioning ships and a reduced number of frigates in its service fleet which affects the UK’s future ability to project power in the Middle East and protect trade.

Read more now on the Henry Jackson Society