Executive Summary

Iran has recently suffered several significant strategic setbacks that began with Israel targeting its air defences in April 2024 in response to Iran’s own missile attack on Israel, followed by the decapitation of Hezbollah and the fall of the Assad regime. This series of events was concluded with the 12 Day War of 13th-24th June 2025 in which Israel and the US successfully targeted Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile facilities as well as eliminating senior Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) commanders. The future of the regime was unclear while the Supreme Leader, hunkered down in a bunker, was not reachable to give orders. Not only was the strategic calculus of the Iranian regime undermined, but so was the Supreme Leader’s cult of personality which underpins the entire regime. This was the first time that Iran had been held to account for its malign activities after its ability to – over decades – establish new norms of terrorism that had not only led to the October 7 massacre, but the killing of over 1,000 US service people across the region.